Sep-20 Sun 15:58
Following the developments at Bab el-Mandeb, Egypt is taking steps to control risks to maritime and energy sectors and is coordinating with Washington.
Egypt's political and security moves coincide with warnings about the impact of developments in Yemen on global energy security and trade, and with increased risks around the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. In an exclusive interview with RT, Egyptian national security expert and journalist Mohamed Makhlouf stated that recent developments have revealed the Yemen crisis has transformed from a purely internal conflict into a crisis with regional and international dimensions linked to Gulf and Red Sea security, trade, and energy flows.
Makhlouf explained that the Houthi advance along Yemen's western coast represents a strategic shift due to its proximity to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, through which approximately 12% of global trade passes. He noted that the ongoing tension adds security, humanitarian, and economic dimensions to the Yemen crisis.
“Pincer Movement” Between Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb
A national security expert pointed out that one of the most dangerous scenarios involves simultaneous pressure on the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. He explained that Hormuz is a key transit point for approximately 20% of global oil supply and approximately 20% of liquefied natural gas, while Bab el-Mandeb is the southern entrance to the Red Sea and the route to the Suez Canal.
He added that the level of risk at Bab el-Mandeb, even without an actual closure, could force shipping companies to change their routes, increase insurance and transportation costs, and lead to more ships resorting to the Cape of Good Hope route, which could add approximately two more weeks to journeys between Asia and Europe.
Makhlouf believes that the simultaneous disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will have an impact extending beyond oil markets to global supply chains and trade. He notes that the targeting of the Saudi East-West oil pipeline, which carries approximately 5 million barrels of oil per day to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea, further complicates the situation and underlines the interdependence and risks of alternative energy routes.
In this context, Makhlouf links the developments in the Red Sea to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit to Cairo on September 15, which he considers significant given the threats targeting Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure and the escalation of the Houthi movement.
President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and the Saudi Crown Prince affirmed that the security of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states is an integral part of Egypt's national security, while also emphasizing the necessity of guaranteeing freedom and security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Red Sea, given the direct link between the security of the Gulf and the Red Sea.
Sisi Meets with CIA Director
President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi also received CIA Director John Ratcliffe, in the presence of Egyptian Chief of General Intelligence Hassan Rashad, adding a security dimension to Egypt's responses to regional developments.
Makhlouf noted that the meeting took place at a highly sensitive time, coinciding with tensions in Yemen and Bab el-Mandeb, as well as crises in Gaza, Sudan, the Horn of Africa, the Iran issue, and international freedom of navigation. He felt that the level of American representation reflected the importance of coordination with Cairo on these issues.
He explained that the meeting had bilateral, regional, and African dimensions, including the coordination of positions on Gaza, Iran, Yemen, and Bab el-Mandeb, as well as Sudan, Somalia, and the Horn of Africa.
He added that cooperation between the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate and the CIA included assessment and information exchange on regional developments, coordination of efforts to combat terrorism and organized crime, and addressing sensitive political and security issues. According to him, this explains the presence of the General Intelligence Directorate head at the meeting.
Increased Internationalization of Bab el-Mandeb Security
The national security expert noted that developments were also pushing towards greater internationalization of Bab el-Mandeb security, drawing attention to Italy's announced intention to deploy naval vessels to protect ships passing through the strait as part of the European “ESPEEDS“ mission.
Makhlouf believes that the increased international maritime presence could provide additional protection for navigation, but it could also increase the likelihood of military conflict with the Houthis and make the Red Sea a more complex arena for international conflict.
Regarding Egypt, Makhlouf concludes that developments present a delicate equation: while instability in the Strait of Hormuz could theoretically increase the importance of the Red Sea and the Suez Canal as trade and energy routes, increased risks at Bab el-Mandeb could limit the benefits derived from this advantage. He emphasizes that the security of Bab el-Mandeb is now directly linked to the strategic security of the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.